Symmetric and asymmetric impacts of commercial energy distribution from key sources on economic progress in Pakistan

Abstract

This paper aims to determine the interaction of commercial energy distribution, including the installed capacity of hydroelectric energy, hydroelectric energy generation, the installed capacity of thermal energy, thermal energy generation, the installed capacity of nuclear energy, and nuclear energy generation, with economic progress in Pakistan over the 1970–2019 period. Both linear and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag models were used to ascertain the symmetric and asymmetric short-and long-run effects. The findings from the linear autoregressive distributed lag model analysis revealed evidence that increases in the installed capacity of nuclear energy, along-side higher levels of hydroelectric energy generation and thermal energy generation, have positively affected economic growth in the short run, while a greater installed capacity of nuclear energy has positively affected economic growth in the long run. The findings from the non-linear auto-regressive distributed lag model analysis showed that negative shocks to installed capacities related to hydroelectric, thermal, and nuclear energy reduced economic growth, while positive shocks to hydroelectric energy generation and the installed capacity of nuclear energy boosted economic growth in the short run. Furthermore, in the long run, negative shocks to the installed capacities of hydroelectric and thermal energy reduced economic growth, negative shocks to the installed capacity of nuclear energy enhanced economic growth, and positive shocks to hydroelectric energy generation and the installed capacity of nuclear energy have stimulated economic growth in Pakistan.