Exploring the Relationships between Land Surface Temperature and Its Influencing Determinants Using Local Spatial Modeling

Abstract

In recent years, a growing body of research has investigated the factors influencing land surface temperature (LST) in different cities, employing diverse methodologies. Our study aims to be one of the few to examine the socio-environmental variables (SV) of LST with a holistic approach, especially in primate cities in developing countries, which are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this context, the study preliminarily identifies the SV of LST while investigating the most vulnerable areas related to extreme LST at the neighborhood level. The combined 11 variables are analyzed using spatial modeling methods (GWR and MGWR). The MGWR model outperforms the GWR model with an adjusted R2of 0.96. The results showed that: (1) the 65+ population is negatively associated with LST in 95% of neighborhoods; the socioeconomic index–LST relationship is negative in 65% of neighborhoods. (2) In 90% of the neighborhoods where the relationship between LST and the built environment ratio is positive, the socioeconomic level decreases while household size increases in 98% of the neighborhoods. (3) In 62% of the neighborhoods where the relationship between the 65+ population and LST is negative, the relationship between the socioeconomic level and LST is negative. This study aids decision-makers and planners in managing urban resources to reduce extreme LST exposure region by region and recommending multiscale policies to control determinant influences on LST.