Reconstruction (1689-1994 AD) of April-August precipitation in the southern part of central Turkey

Abstract

A reconstruction of April-August precipitation (1689-1994) was developed for the region by using Pinus nigra tree rings. A linear regression was performed using the residual chronology, composed of at least nine trees (SSS > 0.85). Within this reconstructed period, dry years were distributed generally as I year (23 times), rarely 2 years (four times) and very rarely 3 years (one time). According to the results, dry events of 3 years' duration were seen only once (1745-47) in the reconstruction period, and wet events were seen twice (1727-29 and 1900-02). Events of 2 years' duration occurred during all three centuries: 1725-26, 1796-97, 1819-20, 1862-63 and 1927-28 (dry years), and 1770-71, 1901-02 (wet years). In accordance with other studies, the years 1693, 1725, 1819, 1868, 1878, 1887 and 1893, which were below two standard deviations, were determined as the driest years in the eastern Mediterranean basin. The distribution of dry and wet periods over time was irregular, and the time between two dry periods was not less than 6 years. There was a significant negative correlation between concurrent April-August North Atlantic oscillation and instrumental precipitation, but it was lower with reconstructed April-August precipitation and nonsignificant. The present results could be useful in the planning and management of water resources and agricultural activities in the region. Copyright (c) 2005 Royal Meteorological Society.