Predicting the Trajectories of Drifting Objects in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Abstract

Forecasting of the tracks of drifting objects in the sea is a complicated process due to the effects of many phenomena such currents and wind. In this research, the problem is solved with model data and a basic approach. In this approach, we apply an iterative method based on surface current and wind data to predict the trajectories of possible drifting objects in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The main surface current circulation has a cyclonic nature, and its impact on the routes of drifting objects is clearly seen. The results of the study are useful for predicting the trajectories of drifting objects and the proposed method and calculations can be roughly used for drifting trajectory prediction. The advantage of this method is that it is user-friendly and provides many tracks in a minute. The biggest uncertainty in this work is obtaining accurate information about where and when the object started to drift.