An improved reconstruction of May-June precipitation using tree-ring data from western Turkey and its links to volcanic eruptions

Abstract

We developed a high quality reconstruction of May-June precipitation for the interior region of southwestern Turkey using regional tree-ring data calibrated with meteorological data from Burdur. In this study, three new climate sensitive black pine chronologies were built. In addition to new chronologies, four previously published black pine chronologies were used for the reconstruction. Two separate reconstructions were developed. The first reconstruction used all site chronologies over the common interval AD 1813-2004. The second reconstruction used four of the chronologies with a common interval AD 1692-2004. R (2) values of the reconstructions were 0.64 and 0.51 with RE values of 0.63 and 0.51, respectively. During the period AD 1692-1938, 41 dry and 48 wet events were found. Very dry years occurred in AD 1725, 1814, 1851, 1887, 1916, and 1923, while very wet years occurred in AD 1736, 1780, 1788, 1803, and 1892. The longest dry period was 16 years long between 1860 and 1875. We then explored relationships between the reconstructed rainfall patterns and major volcanic eruptions, and discovered that wetter than normal years occurred during or immediately after the years with the largest volcanic eruptions.